Avocados from Mexico, Chile and even Florida will satisfy consumers' guacamole cravings this winter, but there could be shortages when the California crop is ready for harvest.
A combination of environmental and economic woes hit California growers in 2008, setting the stage for the smallest avocado crop in years. The California Avocado Commission reported that only 95,254 tons would be harvested from March to August, making this the smallest crop since the 1990 when the crop was affected by a severe freeze.
Wayne Brydon with the California Avocado Commission said the predicted crop is about a third less than produced in 2008 and about half of what growers hoped for.
Charlie Wolk, a longtime grower in San Diego County and past chairman of the California Avocado Commission, said cold weather during bloom caused a poor fruit set. On top of that, some growers chose to stump their trees because irrigation water was either too expensive or they were unsure of an adequate supply for the trees. Hundreds of acres of San Diego County avocado groves were also singed by fires late in 2007, and trees are still recovering.
"A year ago I told the commission we had the potential for a big crop, but we had cold weather during pollination and then those two heat waves. Trees can't take that," Wolk said.
"If we would have had favorable weather, it would have evened out the losses from the fires and stumping, but the combination left us with a significantly smaller crop," he added.
California's Hass variety avocados are grown on about 64,000 acres from San Diego and Riverside counties in the south to Ventura and San Luis Obispo counties in the north. There are just more than 100 acres in production in the San Joaquin Valley and those are the green skin varieties such as Zutano or Bacon.
At 64,000 acres, Brydon said total acreage is down slightly - about 1,000 acres - from last year, but had been increasing until 2006. There are about 6,000 growers in the state. Good returns per acre are keeping them in production, he said. Last year's $327 million crop brought in $5,300 per acre.
Water will be the biggest challenge for growers in the future, said Brydon.
"In San Diego and Riverside we depend on Colorado River water and water pumped from the delta. The Colorado has been stable, the delta is the big deal," he said. Even if water can be delivered, it may cost more.
Wolk said the '09 crop, small as it is, has good quality and fruit size. Harvest will begin after Mexican and Chilean supplies dwindle - probably in late March.
"Harvest is driven by the market, and we can store the fruit on the tree," he said.
Mexico is the world's largest grower of avocados, and about a third of the crop is exported to the United States. Last year U.S. consumers bought 500 million pounds of Mexican avocados. Chilean avocados are imported after the California harvest ends in August. About 180 million pounds are expected from there next year. The USDA on Jan. 7 proposed allowing Hass avocados from Peru into the United States. Growers there estimate they would ship 19 million metric tons annually, which would boost imports by 10 percent.
California grows about 90 percent of domestic avocados with Florida supplying the rest.
Brydon said U.S. demand for avocados remains strong. Americans eat about three pounds of avocado per capita per year, with people in the West and Southwest eating more than the average.
"Ten years ago we would never have thought consumers would buy 1 billion pounds," he said.
Cecilia Parsons is a staff writer based in Ducor. E-mail: cparsons@capitalpress.com.
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